Juhi Jahan: The global economic and oil-market implications for Venezuela crisis is severe enough to disrupt governance, sanctions policy, or production. It focuses on impacts, not disputed operational claims.

The brief analysis on the crisis are:

1 Oil Supply Shock & Price Volatility - Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but output is already constrained by underinvestment and sanctions.

Any sharp escalation: Raises global oil price volatility, even if barrels are not immediately lost. Adds a risk premium to Brent and WTI prices. Hits oil-importing countries hardest (South Asia, Africa, parts of Europe). Limited disruption can move prices because spare global capacity is thin.

2 Sanctions, Licenses & Market Uncertainty - A crisis forces Washington and allies to choose between: Tightening sanctions (political pressure, reduced supply), Selective easing or licenses (to stabilize prices and inflation), Frequent policy shifts increase uncertainty for Traders, Refiners (especially U.S. Gulf Coast, which is optimized for heavy crude), Energy investors. However, Policy ambiguity itself becomes a market destabilizer.

3 U.S. Energy Strategy vs Inflation - For the U.S., Venezuela sits at the intersection of Energy security, Inflation control, Geopolitics. Higher oil prices push up fuel and food costs globally, Complicate interest-rate policy, Increase political pressure on governments already facing cost-of-living crises. Venezuela matters far beyond Latin America because energy prices are politically explosive everywhere.

4 Winners and Losers in the Oil Market

Potential winners are Other heavy-crude suppliers (Canada, Mexico), U.S. shale producers (short-term price boost), Gulf producers if prices rise

Potential losers are developing oil-importing economies, Countries with fuel subsidies, Shipping and airline sectors

5 Geopolitical Realignment is a prolonged crisis acceleration. China and Russia positioning as alternatives to U.S. influence. Latin American polarization over sovereignty vs regime change. A weakening of global norms against unilateral intervention. Energy becomes not just a commodity—but a geopolitical lever.

Sun News/ra